You have, by now, heard the old standby, “we need the rain”. And indeed we do, since our deluges of the spring and summer have not been added on due to near-constant sunshine and dry air. Dewpoints have started to build across southeastern Texas as winds continue to flow off of the Gulf of Mexico. A cold front is moving grudgingly southward from Kansas and Oklahoma, and with the arrival of additional moisture and energy from the decaying Hurricane Miriam (west of Baja California), the stage will be set for important, probably excessive, rains this weekend.
Chances for showers and thunderstorms will be relatively minor until the front arrives, so Thursday could turn out to be very similar to the rest of this week with sunshine, haze and of course the humid atmosphere. But convection is likely to gain a foothold in the region late Thursday night. On Friday, a wave of low pressure forming on the slowing frontal structure over the Big Bend will generate an MCS with potential for flooding rains and severe weather (microbursts and isolated tornadoes).
I suspect that wave will take its good time moving through the Houston metro, and provide all of the local area with a solid 3 – 5 inches of rain (locally more). There is a small chance (according to some of the ensemble members of the various outlooks) that any low which does pass through the Bayou City will get stuck nearby, keeping rain threats going into the middle of next week. For now, I am following the scenario that skies will clear, relative humidity will drop, and pleasant conditions occupy SE TX during the early and middle portions of next week.
Texas Meteorological Satellite Images
UW-Madison Department of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences
NCEP MODEL ANALYSES AND GUIDANCE
Thursday: Partly sunny, very warm and humid. Risk of a shower or thunderstorm. Highs 88 Galveston to 92 Brenham
Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, warm and humid with showers and thunderstorms possible along the Gulf Coast. Lows 71 Prairie View to 75 Jamaica Beach
Friday: Variable cloudiness, warm, humid with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Highs 86 Quintana to 90 Waller
Friday Night: Partly cloudy, warm, humid with thunderstorms likely after midnight. Some thunderstorms may be of heavy to severe intensity. Lows 73 Monaville to 77 Surfside Beach
Saturday: Thunderstorms. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding is possible, and some of the storms may have damaging winds and intense lightning. Highs 82 Pattison to 86 Freeport
Sunday: Thunderstorms. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding is possible, and some of the storms may have damaging winds and intense lightning. Rain diminishing in the afternoon. Cooler. High 78, Low 71
Monday: Sunny and warm with low humidity. High 84, Low 65
Tuesday: Sunny and warm with low humidity. High 86, Low 64