The cold intrusion drawn down from Canada in the wake of Hurricane Sandy (which has severely impacted the parts of the Mid-Atlantic, New England and lower Great lakes regions) looks to be weakening over the next few days. But if you think we are in for a long-lived, strong warming trend, guess again! Many things are going on in the atmosphere, on land and over the seas globally which point toward another sharp colder turn after this weekend. There is the matter of a weak, western Pacific Ocean based El Nino episode; a growing snow cover across Canada; and a tendency for Rex blocking signatures to form across Nunavut AR and Greenland. Put together, these happenings tell me this is NOT your last year winter (warm and dry).
Before that happens, however, a slow rise in temperatures seems likely to occur in Texas. Readings near or exceeding 80 degrees are likely Wednesday through Sunday. Aside from a quick visit by some moisture off of the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday night, the remainder of the week looks fairly dry. Shower or thunderstorm chances return on Saturday and Sunday; this risk of precipitation will be a precursor to what I believe will be a recurring and increasingly active storm track from the Texas Panhandle into the Northeast that will favor cases of heavy rain and severe thunderstorms in the Lone Star State. With the blocking signature set up across northern Canada, drainage of cold air into the eastern two-thirds of the nation will become increasingly commonplace through the next two weeks.
Plymouth State Weather Center
Current Operational SST Anomaly Charts
NIC IMS Home Page
Tuesday: Sunny and mild. Highs 71 Cleveland to 75 Wharton
Tuesday Night: Clear and not as cool. Lows 50 Splendora to 54 Hungerford
Wednesday: Partly sunny and warmer. Highs 78 Roman Forest to 82 East Bernard
Wednesday Night: Increasing cloudiness and mild. Drizzle and fog may develop along the coastline of the Gulf of Mexico. Lows 56 New Caney to 60 Rosenberg
Thursday Becoming sunny and warm. Highs 80 Kingwood to 84 Pecan Grove
Friday: Partly cloudy, breezy, warm and more humid. High 84, Low 63
Saturday: Mostly cloudy, humid; risk of a shower or thunderstorm. High 81, Low 67
Sunday: Mostly cloudy, humid; showers and thunderstorms likely. High 80, Low 69