After a week with unusually cold air across the region, the month of October is running more than 100 degrees below normal, and that came after a mild start to the month. Much like September, which ended below normal over most of the Midwest and the eastern United States, we’re seeing short mild periods in October getting blown out my rounds of much colder air, including our killing freeze Thursday morning, which arrived about two weeks earlier than usual. The average date of the first freeze is October 23rd.
By definition, if we get three or more days of sunshine with light winds and warmer-than-normal high temperatures (generally 70 degrees or greater) after a killing freeze, we’ll have an “Indian Summer” here in the Cincinnati Tri-State. Unfortunately, we’ll warm up this weekend but we’ll also have clouds, wind and rain, with another storm by next Wednesday and Thursday…so no Indian Summer yet.
A strong storm crossing the Plains will race across the Midwest from Saturday through Sunday. Ahead of the storm, southerly winds will pull mild air into our area with highs climbing into the low and mid 70s on Saturday. Winds will be increasing as well with south winds at 10-20 mph Saturday afternoon. It will be a great day for outdoor activities around the Tri-State.
On Sunday the storm will cross the northern Great Lakes with a cold front extending south into Michigan, Indiana and Illinois, crossing Ohio and Kentucky during the afternoon and evening. Showers and thunderstorms will develop with the cold front, and a few strong storms will be possible, but a bigger issue may be the wind.
Models are showing winds above the ground (3,000 to 5,000 feet) from 55 to 80 mph and some of that energy may be pulled down toward the ground as the showers cross the area. I expect sustained winds from 15-30 mph on Sunday with gusts over 40 mph likely, and possibly some gusts to 50 mph. Local wind damage will be possible if the model-indicated winds develop, so stay alert this weekend. Wind advisories may be issued on Saturday for the strong winds on Sunday.
A severe weather outbreak is expected over the western Midwest and eastern Plains on Saturday and if conditions are favorable here on Sunday we may see a few severe thunderstorms as well, mainly producing damaging winds. Highs on Sunday will be in the low 70s.
The Cincinnati Bengals are playing at Cleveland on Sunday and that should be interesting…strong winds, periods of rain with temps in the 60s. I have a feeling that the kicking game and long passes will be challenging at best.
Keep your eyes on the sky and enjoy the changing weather!
Skyeye Weather LLC