Despite a dramatic 8-point swing – just like Michael Cooper of The New York Times – The Washington Examiner reported Tuesday that Democratic pollster Stanley Greenberg and Republican pollster Whit Ayres say the new numbers in the latest National Public Radio poll suggest that Romney’s post-debate surge has “stalled.”
Curiously, four weeks ago, NPR’s survey showed President Obama leading Republican challenger Mitt Romney by a margin of 51 percent to 44 percent.
The new survey places Romney in the lead by a margin of 48 percent to 47 percent.
It’s also interesting that – despite the fact that the sample of “likely voters” in the new NPR survey was 35 percent Democrat, 31 percent Republican, and women – considered by the left to be one of Obama’s most supportive demographics – were oversampled over men by a margin of 54 percent to 46 percent, Romney still acquired an 8-point swing into the lead.
Moreover, the new NPR poll also found that 34 percent said Romney’s debate performances made them more likely to vote for him while only 28 percent said they are more likely to vote for Obama. Among the ever crucial independent voters, Romney trounced Obama, with 37 percent saying they are now more likely to choose him compared to 21 percent for the president.
According to Friday’s Gallup survey — which approximated the “composition of the electorate for the 2012 presidential election” – the demographics of “likely voters” shows a Republican advantage by a margin of 36 percent to 35 percent.
Gallup’s Oct. 22-28 survey of “likely voters” showed Romney leading Obama 51 percent to 46 percent.
Most noteworthy, where Romney has consistently polled at or above the magical 50 percent mark since Gallup’s Oct. 13-19 survey of likely voters — “who are the respondents Gallup deems most likely to vote based on their responses to a series of questions asking about current voting intentions, thought given to the election, and past voting behavior” — Obama has yet to top 47 percent.
As reported Monday by The Weekly Standard, the bipartisan Battleground Poll, in its “vote election model,” predicted that Romney will defeat Obama by a margin of 52 percent to 47 percent.
According to pollster Ed Goeas, while Obama could close this gap with a strong voter turnout effort, “reports from the field would indicate that not to be the case, and Mitt Romney may well be heading to a decisive victory.”
Considering that NPR’s survey showed Republicans with a double-digit advantage when it comes to voter enthusiasm in this election — 76 percent to 66 percent – Goeas’ opinion appears to be on target.
Gallup’s “composition of the electorate for the 2012 presidential election” also substantiates Goeas’ belief that, while the race “remains very close in the surface, the political environment and the composition of the likely electorate favor Governor Romney.”
But Goeas isn’t the only pollster to predict a Romney victory.
An Aug. 8 study, conducted by the University of Colorado — which has accurately predicted the winner of every presidential race over the last 32 years — said Romney will win with 320 delegates. Obama was forecast to receive only 218 delegates.
According to the updated University of Colorado analysis – released Oct. 4 – the news for Obama is worse.
Romney is projected to receive 330 of the total 538 Electoral College votes. President Barack Obama is expected to receive 208 votes — down five votes from their initial prediction — and short of the 270 needed to win.
As with every survey, the devil is in the details.
When asked which candidate they thought would handle specific issues better, Romney bested Obama on “jobs and the economy,” “the federal debt and deficit” and “federal taxes.” Obama beat Romney on “foreign policy and diplomacy” as well as “national security and military affairs.”
However, on the list of concerns that respondents said would be most likely to affect their vote, 57 percent said “economic issues.” National security averaged only 8 percent.
When asked specifically of the way they felt Obama was handling the economy, while 47 percent in NPR’s survey approved, 52 percent disapproved.
Monday’s Rasmussen’s poll also showed that Romney is trusted more in the areas of job creation and energy policy by an eight percent margin over Obama.
NPR’s pollsters, Greenberg and Ayres, said their survey showed that Obama “leads by 4 points in the 12 battleground states,” including Ohio, Florida, North Carolina and Virginia.
Conversely, Rasmussen – one of two polling entities voted “most accurate” for the 2008 election — gave Romney the advantage over Obama among Ohio voters — 50 percent to 48 percent – and an impressive 12-point lead over the president in voter trust, 53 percent to 41 percent.
On Tuesday, the Real Clear Politics average showed Romney ahead of Obama by 1.3 percent in Florida, leading by three percentage points in North Carolina and tied with Obama in Virginia and Colorado.
Monday’s Rasmussen survey also showed Romney with a double-digit lead over Obama on national security issues among Ohio voters — 52 percent to 42 percent.
With Election Day only one week away – and considering Obama’s dismal steady slide in the polls – it calls to mind the chorus of an old Simon and Garfunkel tune:
Slip sliding away, slip sliding away
You know the nearer your destination, the more you slip sliding away
Any bets on whether or not Obama has that song on his iPod?
Follow Patricia Campion on Twitter @PatriciaCampio1
