Hurricane Sandy is in a very similar state intensity wise then she was at this time yesterday. The latest recon pressure I just saw was 957mb with flight level winds somewhat supportive of hurricane strength.
As our trough over the Midwest becomes negatively tilted today and begins to phase with Sandy, she will take on the look of a very powerful nor’easter but the pressure will deepen particularly tonight and tomorrow and the forecasts of pressure in the 930s to 940s doesn’t seem too far-fetched now considering it is already at 957mb. I am now thinking that tonight and tomorrow could see Sandy deepen down to near 940mb which will set some pressure records as it comes ashore in the Northeast Monday night and Tuesday Morning.
Model data has come into better agreement overnight with most of the data now zeroing in on the south-central NJ coastline. I have shifted my track slightly north to near Stafford Township, NJ. This may not be the dire flooding scenario for Philadelphia, a hit into the Delaware Bay would have provided, but this is a very devastating track for the Jersey Shore and potentially New York City, where record tidal flooding is going to be possible that could exceed Donna in 1960 and the great 1821 hurricane.
I expect widespread 60-80 mph wind gusts to Monday night and Tuesday across the mid-Atlantic and Northeast, particularly for Philadelphia, Baltimore, Washington DC, Newark, and New York City. In essence look at my threat map and you can see the area I think will see the strongest winds.
If you live in those areas, be prepare for power outages and an extended period of very strong winds and heavy rain. If you live in coastal sections, particularly on the Jersey Shore up to New York City and Long Island be prepared for the worst flooding you may have seen in your lifetime.
This is a life threatening storm so take it seriously.
Snowfall amounts are going to be incredible in parts of the central Appalachians. I have attached the 6z GFS snowfall forecast and you can see areas of West Virginia could get 2-3 feet with locally more.
I hope that my columns over really the last 1-2 weeks have gotten you prepared for this storm. At this point the NWS and local media will do a great job covering the storm. I will continue to post, perhaps a more in-depth post this afternoon on the impacts, but certainly again tomorrow morning. And as always, follow me on twitter @RaleighWx. I will post updates on data and model data I see during the day.