As of the 8 am advisory from the National Hurricane Center, winds were back up to 75 mph for Sandy The storm was earlier downgraded with a tropical storm but the pressure was still very low at 969 mb. Air force reconnaissance measured the pressure back down to 960 mb. The storm will continue to the northeast and then intensify rapidly. As the arctic air spills in from the west, the storm will then get captured by the buckling jet stream and get pulled west to the coastal US. Watch for the location around 32N and 72W for this to start showing those signs.
Current Warnings and Advisories are at the bottom of this post.
The storm will make the turn on Sunday, but make landfall on Monday
The storm may stall across southern PA or northern Maryland with effects lasting into Wednesday.
Winds and tornadoes
The latest measurement of the storm is large and it will get larger. Hurricane Force winds extend 100 miles to the southwest of the center. Tropical Storm Force winds reach 450 miles away. Expect that to more than double in size along the east coast at landfall.
There is a lot of agreement among the computer models that this storm will make landfall between Ocean City and New York City (what I have been saying for a couple of days). This will not be a classic hurricane, but a hybrid storm that will expand more than 1000 miles away. Like a Nor’Easter with the power of a hurricane. Winds over 50 mph will expand that distance, but hurricane force winds will reach a few hundred miles away. This will be equal to or stronger than what many experienced with Irene last year, and it may last longer. There is a good indication that the storm may linger or stall across the Mason/Dixon line for a day or two. With that in mind, very close to my home, I have made the personal decision not to chase this one. While the shoreline may experience tremendous conditions and the storm surge between Delaware and New York will be destructive, I believe a greater threat may be inland. In addition to potential tornadoes that are common with land falling tropical systems, the high winds inland could be more threatening. These trees are not designed to handle those winds the coastal regions often experience. Even with the leaves being stripped off, the long duration will test their integrity.
As for those leaves, they will add a great risk of flooding by clogging storm drains. Rainfall expectations of 6-12+ inches extends across a broad area of the Mid Atlantic and it will be a problem. I do see flooding issues from the rainfall and flowing down tributaries.
Storm Surge: and sloshing on the Chesapeake Bay.
The water issues will be clear at the point of landfall and north of the center. There will be a large storm surge and the worst impacts may funnel along the shape of the coast through New Jersey and New York. The New York City subway system is expected to flood and they may shut down service Sunday ahead of the storm.
On the Chesapeake Bay, the water will slosh based on the wind, but it could also drain out like Agnes. So the water along the shores will be a tough call to predict combining the falling rain as well. The most important issue is that this WILL NOT be like Isabel. The only way to get that kind of surge up the Bay would be a landfall near Virginia Beach or south. Right now that does not look likely. See more on the Sloshing here:
More on the set up for ‘The Perfect Storm’
I will monitor that part of the storm on my Baltimore Weather Examiner page. Also follow along for updates through:
Facebook: Justin Berk, Meteorologist
Tropical storm and hurricane history of naming. 2012 Atlantic list
Tropical Storm formation history: Storm origin maps every 10 days of season
Hurricane Preparedness Week: Storm Surge is the most deadly and destructive
Hurricane Destruction Animation based on Saffir Simpson Scale
NASA Global Hawk: Hurricane drone planes run by locals at Goddard
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO SAINT AUGUSTINE
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO DUCK…INCLUDING PAMLICO
AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* GREAT ABACO AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* SAVANNAH RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF SAINT AUGUSTINE TO
IN ADDITION…GALE…STORM AND HIGH WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREAS. SEE
STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.
INTERESTS THROUGHOUT THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY.