Raleigh Weather Discussion
Obviously the major topic this morning is Hurricane Sandy and its effects on the Triangle and NC. For the Triangle, we will see this current band likely weaken some before a more significant band sets up and moves in this afternoon and overnight. This band could bring 0.5 inches of rain or so to the Triangle with higher amounts north towards the Va border. Winds could also be high this evening and tonight. High resolution models are showing the potential for wind gusts as high as 50-55 mph across the Triangle tonight.
Tomorrow will be an interesting day with cold temperatures, continued windy weather (although tapering off as the day wears on), and showers that could mix with snow north of the Triangle near Roxboro and Oxford. IN the Triangle it looks like the boundary layer will be too warm for the precipitation to fall as snow, although if a heavy shower were to setup somewhere it is possible some snowflakes could mix down. North of the Triangle a quick dusting on grass/exposed services is possible tomorrow morning.
In the NC Mountains, I still expect 6-12 inches in the counties bordering TN and also above 3000ft and winds possibly as high as 100mph in gusts tonight and tomorrow morning. It is going to be a wicked period of time in the NC Mountains. Lower elevations will likely still pick up several inches of snow with high winds as well.
The rain/wind should slack off considerably by Tuesday night and Wednesday with calmer and chilly weather the rest of the week. Halloween looks chilly but dry with trick-or-treat temperatures likely in the 50s dropping into the 40s as the evening progresses.
The bulk of the forecast period looks dry with cooler than normal weather as highs should be in the upper 50s to low 60s and lows in the mid to upper 30s most days. We may see a chance for rain by day 9/10 as a new front approaches.
National Extended Forecast Discussion
An interesting pattern looks to set up in the 11-15 day period with a pronounced west-based –NAO in place, and at the same time a +EPO/-PNA/-WPO/+AO configuration. If we did not have the –NAO in place those factors would normally point to a blow torch across the eastern ½ to 2/3 of the country. But with the –NAO in place we will likely see a persistent trough/weakness over the eastern US and also over the NW US, with the SW US and perhaps New England the only spots that may see warmer than normal temperatures. However with the AO positive and no ridging over Alaska and western Canada we will not see arctic air only some modified polar pacific air. So no extreme cold is likely. The ensembles do want to send a cold shot down the Plains around Veteran’s Day but right now it doesn’t look extreme.