Raleigh Weather Discussion
Our weather will still be directed by Sandy today as we will see intermittent rain showers through the day. Although it is chilly aloft, the temperatures at the surface are too warm for snowflakes to make it to the ground. Still I cannot rule out a snowflake or two north of the Triangle today although I am not overly optimistic about it and it certainly would cause no issues.
It will still be windy today with gusts of 30-40mph still possible but the potential will gradually diminish as we go through the day.
As the tangible effects from Sandy wind down, we are left with a very cool weather pattern for the upcoming week including Halloween tomorrow. Temperatures will be solidly below normal through the week with lows in the 30s and highs in the 50s to near 60. I am watching for the potential for frost/freezes. Friday morning could be a time to watch for some possible frost, so I will keep an eye on that.
Temperatures will warm a bit on Saturday and Sunday ahead of cold front that will spawn a coastal low early next week. Models have come into better agreement on this and Monday could be a cool, wet day with temperatures dropping through the day. In general next week as of now looks cooler than normal as well although not as much so as this week.
Right now, I do not see a high of 70 or greater at RDU over the next 10 days.
National Extended Weather Discussion
It appears we are heading into a pattern where we will continue to see a persistent west-based –NAO with positive height anomalies over Greenland, Davis Strait, NE Canada, and Labrador. A –PNA which will favor a trough in western Canada, a +EPO transitioning to neutral and perhaps negative late in the period which would favor a trough in the Gulf of Alaska but perhaps ridging there late in the period, and a +AO which means the tap to the coldest air at the poles will be cut off.
The translation is a pattern that will favor cool, polar-pacific air moving from western Canada into the northern Plains, Upper Midwest, and mid-Atlantic/Southeast, while the Southwest and perhaps New England stay warmer than normal. IT should also be a somewhat progressive pattern with storm systems likely moving quickly across the US with some rain and warm-ups ahead of the front but cool downs behind.
Overall, it looks to be a generally cooler than normal pattern for the aforementioned areas, but with not real arctic air involved through mid-November.
Beyond this we have to see if the 00z Canadian Ensemble idea of a building ridge on the west coast is true. IF so, this combined with the –NAO may portend a cold pattern for the 2nd half of November. The GFS/ECMWF Ensemble is much flatter on the west coast, but the Euro Ensemble keeps the –NAO around which would continue the general cool, but not very cold pattern. The Euro weeklies released last night keep the –NAO around through the end of November.