With the posting of 32 possible combinations of swing states that would lead to a tie in the electoral college, 270towin.com reveals the power of battleground states to decide this year’s election.
Here is a look at two of the most plausible possibilities.
To eliminate some of the 32 scenarios, there are several parameters to consider. First, Florida is unreliable for Democrats. Besides the fact that Romney has a slight lead, voter-ID laws and voter intimidation accusations in the state suggests that Florida could be as big a mess as it was in 2000.
Second, although not a safe state, President Obama has a better shot at Ohio then Romney. Again, this is just an educated assumption to rule out tie scenarios, but early voting is helping the President. Additionally, early voting is more significant in north eastern states due to Hurricane Sandy. Because of this, Pennsylvania can be put into the Obama win column.
So, of the 32 scenarios, let’s look at the two that have Romney wining Florida and Obama winning Ohio and Pennsylvania.
1. Romney wins the South and West
- Romney’s swing states: Fla., N.C., Va., Colo., Nev., Iowa
- Obama’s swing states: Pa., Ohio, Mich., Wis., N.H.
According to realclearpolitics.com, Romney is leading in North Carolina and Virginia, making the south a plausible lock down for Romney. The toss-ups out west are not as solid. Colorado is very attainable for Romney, but he’s had difficulty grabbing votes in Nevada and Iowa. Regardless, all three are close races.
Secondly, New Hampshire might be a tough win for Obama as the state has difficulty warming to a second term. If N.H. was to go to Romney, then the tie would become a Romney win.
2. Obama performs weakly in the midwest
- Romney’s swing states: Fla., Mich., Va., Wis., Nev., N.H.
- Obama’s swing states: Pa., Ohio, N.C., Iowa, Colo.
In this Electoral-tie scenario, Obama underperforms in the Great Lakes states, ceding Michigan and Wisconsin. If Romney could make inroads into these states and capture a couple western states, the election could produce a tie.
In the recent past, North Carolina was looking pretty solid for Romney, but recent polls have put the race at a tie there, making it even more possible for this scenario to play out.
A tie would all but guarantee a Romney win, because, in the event of a tie in the Electoral College, Congress votes to elect the President. A Republican majority in congress, who’s priority is only to stop President Obama, would guarantee a Romney administration.