It’s “High Noon” for the Obama reelection campaign, according to Chuck Todd of NBC News, according to his analysis of a [startling] new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll on NBC’s Meet the Press, Sunday morning, October 21st, as captured on an the audio sound bite aired on the Rush Limbaugh Show, one week ago.
The show’s long time host, David Gregory, immediately opened the show by tossing the ‘hot potato’ poll into Todd’s lap:
Brand-new this morning–the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll on where the race stands!
Let’s go right to my colleague, Chuck Todd.
You got the numbers … this is significant.
Chuck, we’re in trouble here, right, buddy?
Look at this!
This is among likely voters, David: 47-47.
The president sitting at 47, if this were the Sunday before Election Day, there would be a lot of concerns in Chicago. They want to be at 48 or 49. Sitting at 47 is a good number for a challenger, not a good number for an incumbent.
Let’s go inside the numbers a little bit.
The gender gap among men: Romney a ten-point lead.
Let’s go to women. This is interesting! President, an eight-point lead here. This is actually his smallest lead among women that we’ve had all year long.
A few other things inside the numbers here, David.
In the Midwest: Romney a narrow lead but way inside the margin of error.
And among all the collective battleground states, a little bit of a lead for Mitt Romney.
This sudden change was not much of a surprise, as these pollsters had for months been over sampling Democrats over Republicans by 9 to 11 points–using the same turnout rate as in 2008–and in prior months had been using “Registered Voters,” to ‘assist’ Barack Obama in maintaining a consistent 5 point lead.
Now, using only “Likely Voters,” self-identified as being 36.8 percent Republican to 34.2 percent Democrat, would give Republicans a +2.6 point edge–producing a net ‘swing’ in turnout of nearly 13 points, according to Rasmussen’s September 2012 polling.
However, one week later, things have tumbled even further for President Obama.
Gallup’s weekly presidential tracking poll results, from last week, show Romney expanding to a five point lead over Obama among “Likely Voters,” up to 51-46 from 50-46 the week prior, as reported in Brett LoGuirato’s Business Insider article today.
Rasmussen’s weekly presidential tracking poll has Mitt Romney ahead of Barack Obama by 49-47; but, as Romney is historically likely to win the 2 percent undecided vote as well, that would bring both polls into alignment. See daily tracking history.
More interestingly, Michigan and Pennsylvania are now also in play, bringing the ‘Swing State’ total to 11 that Obama had won in 2008, which collectively hold 146 Electoral College votes; the others are Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin, according to Rasmussen’s latest ‘Daily Swing State Tracking Poll.
The poll gives Romney a 50-46 edge over the president, after having held the lead for the past 12 days in a row–and, after likely picking up the 2 percent undecideds, raising the tally to 52-46, it will nicely reconcile the [national] Gallup poll (above), which is exactly what happened with Obama at this point in 2008, where both polls had him at 53-46 over McCain.
Separately, Rasmussen’s latest polling now shows Mitt Romney pulling away from Barack Obama 50-48, among “Likely Voters,” in the battleground state of Ohio.
Then, there is nothing that will cut a Liberal to the quick like being ‘abandoned’ by the media, which is exactly what happened when The Detroit News, one of Michigan’s two largest news outlets, endorsed Mitt Romney for president last Thursday, according to Andrea Billups’ October 25th Washington Times article.
The newspaper cited Romney’s economic success, as well as being a Michigan native son whose father was governor. They further stated that he offered “the best hope of changing the nation’s fate.”
Had Obama done as well with the rest of the economy, it would be hard to deny him a second term. But Obama said himself in a midterm television interview that if by the end of his first term the economy was still broken, he should not be re-elected. Well, the economy is still broken, and we have lost confidence in the president’s ability to make the necessary repairs.
In noting that ‘the nation is struggling to determine its future course, and how it defines itself in the world,’ the editors added:
A country built on rugged individualism finds itself increasingly under the thumb of a federal government that is ever expanding its reach into the lives of its citizens. Obama has proved himself a disciple of the doctrine that for every problem there’s a government solution.
Romney, by contrast, embraces individual initiative and entrepreneurship. He would turn back the encroachment of the bureaucracy into the private sector. Romney would replace the heavy hand of government with the invisible hand of a rational marketplace working to produce broad prosperity.
As if that truth wasn’t painful enough, Barack Obama also lost out to Mitt Romney on a few other important swing state press endorsements, including the Detroit Free Press and the Grand Rapids Press.
Finally, Mitt Romney also walked away with the prize in Iowa Saturday night, where for the first time in 40 years the editorial board of The Des Moines Register, Iowa’s largest and most influential newspaper, chose to endorse a Republican for president, as reported in Chris Laible’s October 27th FOXNews article.
Generally, they praised Romney’s private sector experience and his ability to work across the aisle as governor–deciding that he was the best choice to fix the nation’s problems, writing:
Voters should give Mitt Romney a chance to correct the nation’s fiscal course and to implode the partisan gridlock that has shackled Washington and the rest of America–with the understanding that he would face the same assessment in four years if he does not succeed.
They concluded by writing:
The president’s best efforts to resuscitate the stumbling economy have fallen short. Nothing indicates it would change with a second term in the White House.
It is quite apparent that America believes that Barack Obama’s now famous ‘last resort’ of publicly calling Gov. Romney a “liar, felon, and bull sh-tter, who suffers from Romnesia,” is nothing more than the “Obamaloney,” of a soon to be former–and the worst ever–president, in our nations long history.
Copyright 2012 by Jeffrey Klein
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