As of the 8am advisory from the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Sandy had winds of 75 mph. That is about the same it has been for a day or two. However the central pressure had dropped to 951mb. That is much lower than the 5am advisory of 960mb. This means Sandy is going through the process of intensifying and transitioning to a hybrid storm. It is losing its tropical characteristics as cold air enters the warm core. This means a few things:
- Sandy is huge and it will turn slowly like a large ship in the ocean. The forward seed will slow down, the direction will swing gradually to the north and then northwest. Then it will pick up forward speed towards the coast. When this turn takes place will determine where it makes landfall.
- The size of Sandy is huge as I already said. Hurricane force winds extend 175 miles away form the center. Tropical Storm Force winds reach 520 miles from the center. For perspective, Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect simultaneously for Bermuda and the North Carolina Outer Banks. I haven’t seen that before.
- The size and impact of Sandy can still grow even larger as it interacts with the US east coast. It will like a Nor’Easter on steroids with hurricane like energy… and a tack inland like no other.
- Many computer models indicate that the storm will make landfall in central New Jersey. There is still some adjustment until the storm makes the complete turn. This still fits in the range of Ocean City to New York City I have given for a few days. Once inland, many models agree that the storm will drop southwest and could stall between southwestern PA, northern Virginia, or west central Maryland until Wednesday morning. Cold air will wrap into the core, and one model has Baltimore with a high of only 40F, so snow could get close. See the animation video comparing them.
- The National Hurricane Center will stop advising on the storm once Sandy is no longer tropical. The local National Weather Service offices will take over. This may confuse the public as High Wind Watches don’t carry the same impression as a Hurricane Watch, but don’t let your guard down. Winds will still exceed 80 mph near the center and 50 mph in a large 1000 mile region. See the NOAA letter in the slide show.
- There is a full moon on Monday, adding to the high tide. Storm surge over 10 feet can be expected at and north of the landfall location Monday night
Main broad base concerns include:
- Tornadoes spawned at landfall
- Leaves clogging storm drains and adding to flooding
- Time Frame: Increasing rain and wind Monday. Landfall Monday night into Tuesday Morning. Stalling or lingering impact for Mid Atlantic through Wednesday.
- Snow on the west side. Colder air could bring the snow farther east
Latest Stats on Sandy from The National Hurricane Center
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT…1200 UTC…INFORMATION
ABOUT 260 MI…420 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 395 MI…635 KM S OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…75 MPH…120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…951 MB…28.08 INCHES
Storm Surge and the Chesapeake Bay
The Perfect Storm.
I will monitor that part of the storm on my Baltimore Weather Examiner page. Also follow along for updates through:
Facebook: Justin Berk, Meteorologist
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT…
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR…
* CAPE FEAR TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
Other related Articles:
Tropical storm and hurricane history of naming. 2012 Atlantic list
Tropical Storm formation history: Storm origin maps every 10 days of season
Hurricane Preparedness Week: Storm Surge is the most deadly and destructive
Hurricane Destruction Animation based on Saffir Simpson Scale
NASA Global Hawk: Hurricane drone planes run by locals at Goddard