Sandy has already dropped heavy rain on the Delmarva this morning. While the center of this large storm churns parallel to the coast, there is not main update to the storm track. Flooding has already occurred along the shores of Ocean City and Delaware. This is still more than a day and a half before landfall. I continue to hold out until it makes the long anticipated turn to the north and then northwest back to the coast.
See photos of the day and the latest forecast maps in the slide show. The Delaware State Trooper got caught on Rt 1 in the fast rising water.
Imporant Storm Related Articles:
- Hurricane Sandy and The Chesapeake Bay in Maryland
- Rumors of a perfect storm or a whole lot of nothing from TS Sandy
- Hurricane Sandy puts Maryland in State of Emergency, devastating impacts beyond
I will monitor that part of the storm on my Hurricane Examiner Page. Also follow along for updates through:
Facebook: Justin Berk, Meteorologist
The size of this storm is incredible. Tropical Storm force winds extend more than 500 miles away onto some coastal areas, and the pressure at 951mb is already stronger than many superstorms the northeast has experienced in recorded history. This pressure level is expected to lower a little more as it transitions to a hybrid or post tropical system. The importance of this is based in the fact the air pressure is the weight of the air above. Low Pressure means less air, so like a vacuum, air for the surrounding area rushes in to fill it. As it spirals around the center it is forced up and thus we get clouds and our storm building. A deeper pressure means the air will pull in faster. Since the center will be spread out more than a hurricane’s eye, the top wind speeds might not increase much above 80 mph, but the fast wind speeds over 50 mph will extend a much farther reach. That will extend the duration most areas of the Mid Atlantic have to deal with them.
What will the storm do when it hits land? Snow?
There are many ideas of it stalling near the Mason Dixon line (Maryland and Pennsylvania border). I want to stress that this is purely unchartered territory. We have not experienced a storm like this before and the computer models are handling the physics of the storm differently. To be honest, no one is certain how this will truly behave, so it is important to keep all options on the table.
The is a good handle of the arctic air producing snow between 1-2 feet (or more) over the highest elevations of Maryland, West Virginia, and southwestern PA. The video clip on the left shows the cold air rushing into and wrapping around the core of Sandy from the south and west on Tuesday morning.
The High Resolution NAM Model shows this. It is respected because it has a closer look at the atmosphere and plenty of data inland from the arctic air mass region to feed off of. Watch three levels showing the winds, temperatures, and precipitation in the video clip on the left. THIS IS NOT A FORECAST, JUST ONE MODEL. The heavy rain and winds are expected. The snow part however includes Washington, Baltimore, and surrounding metro regions Tuesday morning. The actual numbers keep the temperatures in the upper 30s for the cities, So even if this outside chance verifies, the odds are that it does not stick. But in the higher elevations north and west could be in for something interesting. It was exactly one year ago, October 29th, that we had the Snowtober storm which dumped 6 inches of snow just about 30 miles northwest of Baltimore. History has a sense of irony.
I am getting a lot of questions and I want to answer all of them. Here are some bullet points for now:
*Downed trees- Yes!
– Winds will be over 50 mph for a day or longer.
– Heavy rain will soften roots.
– Leaves that don’t lose their leaves will catch more wind like a sail and have a better chance to break branches or topple over
*Flooding – Yes!
– Rainfall 6-12 inches
– Clogged storm drains from leaves
– water will SLOSH on the Bay, NOT surge up (see my article in a comment below). Wind will be from the North or Northwest. That will push water down the bay and toward the Eastern shore Side.
-If you like, I will make a list of high tides later today for Monday. The full moon will increase water level.
– Use today to bring valuables up to a higher level –
**IF YOU EVER HAD FLOODING BEFORE
**IF YOU LIVE IN A FLOOD PLAIN
Take in Halloween cecorations, lawn furniture, plants.
Taping windows does not help! Full boarding or forget it.
I will update here and Twitter @JustinWeather as long as I have access online or mobile. Remember I have kept a calm outlook with no hype. This is not time to panic, but it will be bad. It will be worse farther north.
Tropical storm and hurricane history of naming. 2012 Atlantic list
Tropical Storm formation history: Storm origin maps every 10 days of season
Hurricane Preparedness Week: Storm Surge is the most deadly and destructive
Hurricane Destruction Animation based on Saffir Simpson Scale
NASA Global Hawk: Hurricane drone planes run by locals at Goddard