Temperatures were very mild this morning across the Capital Region, holding near 60 degrees at Albany, NY, with some mid and upper 50’s north and west of the immediate area. Brisk southerly winds were one of the factors that kept the temperatures held up overnight, as the breeze remained pretty constant through the overnight period.
The mild weather will persist through the morning hours, before a cold front slides through during the afternoon. Satellite pictures show extensive cloud cover, associated with the system, moving into our area this morning. Radar was scantily returning some light shower activity scattered about with these clouds. As the cold front passes east of the region this afternoon, a secondary upper level disturbance will slide through the area in its wake. This will ensure that the evening and overnight hours remain mostly cloudy and breezy, with the continued slight chance of a shower or two. There may even be some wintry precipitation, in the form of sleet or wet snow, mixing in at the higher elevations, mainly above 2,000 feet. Precipitation is expected to remain liquid rain over the Capital Region.
High pressure will slowly take control of our weather on Tuesday, but with the close proximity of the upper level low, and a favorable northwesterly flow of rather brisk nature, a shower or two cannot be ruled out. Sunshine should mix with clouds for the majority of the day, and as mentioned, a brisk northwest breeze should pick up during the day.
Fair weather continues Wednesday night, as the high pressure area slides off the Atlantic coast, to our east. This allows warmer air, on a return southerly flow, to be introduced to the region once again. An approaching system, gathering strength over the upper midwest, will slowly begin to make a run at our region by early Thursday morning, thus clouds will be on the increase as the system’s warm front brushes through the region during the daytime hours.
The end of the work week, and into the weekend, looks to be unsettled. The low pressure system mentioned in the above paragraph will grind to nearly a stationary halt over the upper Great Lakes as downstream blocking in the upper level flow develops over the Atlantic Ocean, refusing to allow the low pressure system further eastward movement.
This blocking pattern looks to persist for a few days, before relinquishing by later in the weekend. Several upper level disturbances look to pinwheel around the main surface low as it moves slowly into southeastern Canada on Saturday. As far as surface weather is concerned over the Capital Region, Friday should see the best chances for precipitation, with more of a scattered shower scenario unfolding as we head into the weekend. Temperatures look to remain elevated somewhat thanks to all the cloud cover, especially during the overnight hours, and should remain near, to slightly above, normal.
…Below is the official forecast for the Capital Region and vicinity…
Today: Clouds mixing with intervals of sunshine. Scattered showers through the day. Breezy and mild. High near 70. Southwest winds 10-20 MPH with some higher gusts to near 30 MPH possible at times. Chance of rain is 50 percent.
Tonight: Lots of clouds with the continued chance of showers. Low near 45. West winds 5-15 MPH. Chance of rain is 40 percent.
Tuesday: Morning clouds giving way to a mix of sun and clouds by afternoon. Windy, with the slight chance of a shower. High near 55. Northwest winds 15-25 MPH with higher gusts to near 35 MPH possible at times. Chance of rain is 20 percent.
Tuesday Night: Mostly clear and chilly. Low near 35. Light northwest winds.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High near 65. Southwest winds 5-15 MPH.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. High near 65 and low near 40.
Friday: Mostly cloudy with a 60 percent chance of rain. High near 65 and low near 55.
Saturday: Mostly sunny with a 30 percent chance of a shower. High near 60 and low near 45.
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